Welcome to electionmodels.com.
Election models analyse the latest polling data to give you a better idea of who's really ahead. Follow the links to find the current models.
07/03/2024
Added the UK General Election model
21/08/2020
Added the US Senate Model
11/12/2019
Final Projection based on polls:
Con: 343 (321-386)
Lab: 221
Lib: 10
SNP: 53
PC: 3
Others: 20
15/11/2019
Added the UK Seat Projection
13/11/2019
Launch of the UK Poll of Polls
15/08/2019
Launch of the Israel September model.
15/03/2019
To keep track of which EU member states might oppose an Article 50 extension. It must be unanimous to pass. #Article50 #Brexit https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_CxxKxRwy0021J0r-cwihxRDhvsVJtr-I7j90jOzc2Y/edit#gid=0 … Please join in!
23/02/2019
The Israel model has been updated to reflect the final party lists.
16/02/2019
Fixed a bug in the EU model causing National Parties to map to the wrong European Group.
06/02/2019
Launch of the EU model.
02/02/2019
The Israel model has been adjusted to include the Zehut party which has been featured in some polls.
20/03/2019 Israel
This past fortnight has seen a detectable decline in support for Gantz' Blue & White party. These votes being picked mainly by Right Wing parties - most notably Zehut and Yisrael Beiteinu who are now consistently polling above the threshold. This increases the chance of a Right Wing block forming a government.
25/02/2019 Israel
The deadline for Party Lists has now past so we have the final line-up of parties that the Israeli electorate will be voting for. The biggest news is the merger of Hosen and Yesh Atid into "Blue & White". This, for the first time in over a year, puts Likud in 2nd place according to the polls, potentially signalling a change in Prime Minister should the current situation hold until election day. On the Left no such alliance has been formed leaving four polling left-wing parties currently projected to get less than a quarter of the seats. On the right even less consolidation has occurred with nine different parties getting just under half of the seats. This is where the advantage of the Blue & White alliance is - some of the parties on the right are likely to fall below the threshold and Blue & White can pick up seats based on those wasted votes.
06/02/2019 Israel
The most significant shift in the Israel model has been the rise of Benny Gantz' Hosen Yisrael party which has risen from 14 to 22 seats since his first campaign speech. The intriguing question is though, where is he taking seats from? The answer - not Likud. Yesh Atid has seen a decline but not an enormous one, rather Hosen is taking a slither from almost every party - the result being that the smallest parties find themselves fighting to stay above the 3.25% threshold and are sometimes getting no seats at all. This is why Likud is not adversely affected - when a smaller party drops below the threshold the larger parties tend to pick up their seats.
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